Kelly Criterion vs Flat Staking: Which Actually Grows a Bankroll?

A practical comparison of Kelly and flat staking — growth, drawdown and what happens when your edge estimate is wrong.

Kelly sizes each bet to the estimated edge, which grows a bankroll fastest when the estimate is right — and punishes you hardest when it is not.

Flat staking gives up some growth for a much smoother ride, and it keeps a bad edge estimate from doing lasting damage.

Most bettors overestimate their edge, which is why fractional Kelly or flat stakes usually end up ahead in practice.

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